S&P 500: Bull & Bear Balance
Almost Out Of The Woods
Week 3: Market Health Check
A Market Balancing Act
The S&P 500 reached the upper boundary of its moderate correction target early in Monday’s session, rebounding throughout the week to close up +2.91%. The Nasdaq followed a similar trajectory, finishing the week with a +2.85% gain. Meanwhile, the small-cap barometers—Russell 2000 and Cathie Wood’s ARKK—posted advances of +3.96% and +3.72%, respectively.
While the bearish sentiment has nearly dissipated, I’m not yet convinced the market is entirely out of the ‘bear’ woods.
Before progressing into the charts, I’d like to pose a question to readers: I use TradingView to create the charts shared here and to set alerts for key levels and conditions—such as when all three risk-off criteria are active or when levels in the “Navigating the Short Term” section are reached. Do you use TradingView? And if so, would you be interested in a breakdown of the alert settings I use for your weekly market tracking?
Next week marks the final week of the month, and as always in the last week of the month, this newsletter will provide updated charts for all active trade ideas. Additionally, it will introduce the first trade idea for 2025.
A Look Back at Trade Highlights from 2024:
VSCO (Victoria’s Secret) — First target achieved: +52% in 5 months; second target: +135% in 6 months.
ASAN (Asana) — First target achieved: +41% in 2 months; second target: +108% just two weeks later.
BABA (Alibaba) & TCEHY (Tencent) — Both hit their first trade target: +63% in 7.5 months.
CPNG (Coupang) — Reached its first trade target: +58% in 7 months.
Of course, not every trade was a winner—2024 saw its share of losses as well, including Match Group, and Unity Software.