Lines On A Chart
Welcome to Lines On A Chart—a weekly breakdown of the market’s environment, tone, and turning points, published every Sunday morning.
I'm Tom, and for more than a decade, I’ve navigated markets through the lens of technical analysis, sentiment, and market breadth—not just to make sense of the noise, but to manage risk, protect capital, and find opportunity.
At the core of this newsletter is a simple but powerful system:
A three-part risk framework that classifies the market environment as either risk-on or risk-off. When all three signals fire simultaneously, it triggers what I call the risk-off alarm—an objective way to spot when markets are vulnerable. The effectiveness of this system is shown in the historical performance table I occasionally share, tracking each risk-off instance and the corresponding market reaction.
That risk framework is what shapes every issue of this letter. The system keeps me grounded when narratives get loud, and it's helped guide readers through both drawdowns and breakouts.
Why Subscribe?
Risk First, Trades Second
Each week begins with a review of the market’s risk state—because timing and strategy mean nothing if the environment is misreadClear, Tactical Structure
Every letter walks through the market landscape, levels to watch, sentiment shifts, and positioning strategy across short and intermediate-term horizons.S&P 500 as the Anchor
The S&P 500 remains the central compass. From its price action and moving averages, I build the broader outlook for equities, small caps, bonds, and trade setups.Honest Process, Evolving Thesis
This isn’t about being right every time—it's about showing the work, adjusting when needed, and thinking through uncertainty. You’ll see both wins and misses, with transparency throughout.
Lines On A Chart is Reader-Supported
The first letter of every month is free to all.
To access full weekly notes, trade ideas, out-of-cycle risk alerts, and to support the continuation of this work, consider becoming a supporting subscriber.
