S&P 500: All Time Highs Every Week
6 weeks of all time high weekly closing prices
Another Weekly All Time High— 6X
The S&P 500 closed at another fresh all-time high, rising 0.62% for the week, while the Nasdaq rallied 1.1% and is now just under 2% away from setting new record highs. The traditional small-cap category consolidated the gains from the previous two weeks, dipping slightly by 0.56%, while the modern small-cap barometer, ARKK, advanced just over 2%. For now, the momentum following the US rate cut remains positive, and until the risk-off criteria start to trigger, the odds remain in favor of bullish participants.
This week's note will review the risk-off criteria and provide updates on the three trade idea categories: US Small Caps (3), Outside US Equities (3), and The Gold Trade (1). The three ideas within the Outside US Equities category, first shared in February, are now approaching their initial trade targets. As of last week's close, these ideas have delivered returns ranging from 49% to 53%. The US Small Cap trade ideas are positioning for a breakout, while the Gold Trade continues to perform well, currently up by 38%. Additionally, an early preview of a potential trade idea is included in this week's note.
Risk Off Criteria - 0/3
Three components define the market environment as either risk-on or risk-off.
The Short Term Trend— price relative to the 20-day exponential moving average
Breadth— the number of stocks making new highs vs new lows across NYSE & Nasdaq markets, middle panel “Net New Highs”
Momentum— measured using the Percentage Price Oscillator, lower panel
The S&P 500 continued another week exploring new all-time highs, all three risk-off criteria remain absent. The price is above the short-term moving average (5644), breadth kept strong and positive throughout the entire week, and momentum is continues to turn up.
