Trading 6300’s
Markets continued to trade near all-time highs last week, with the S&P 500 finishing up +0.59% and the Nasdaq gaining +1.25%. ARKK—the preferred risk-on barometer—advanced +7.4%, delivering the outperformance speculated in this late-stage rally.
Navigating an all-time high environment doesn’t require complexity. The strategy remains simple: stay long until the risk-off alarm is triggered by a breakdown in trend, breadth, and momentum.
Congratulations to those who bought the fear back in April—and especially to those who viewed ARKK’s second breakout attempt in May as a signal for outperformance. Since that move, ARKK is up +50%, while the S&P has gained +11%. Capturing outperformance matters.
I continue to reference the S&P 500 seasonality chart— at the beginning of the month I wrote that if seasonality holds, bulls my have a few more weeks to ride trend strength— while keeping alert for early signs of topping through structure, sentiment and equity positioning. Two more trading weeks left for July— thereafter August and September seasonality becomes a headwind.
Risk Off Criteria: 1 of 3 Active
The S&P 500 has been consolidating within the 6200–6300 range for the past three weeks, and momentum has softened during that stretch—now registering a technically negative reading since last Monday.