S&P 500: 6000, The Most Important Level

Risk Off Criteria Absent, Bond Positioning

Six Thousand, 6000

For over two months now this newsletter has placed significant focus on the 6000 level for the S&P 500— at this point there is an argument this is in the near term the most important level to monitor. This has made for a consistent message over the past two months.

• Above 6000 = Good

• Below 6000 = Bad

Year to date— the narrative of DeepSeek, the AI model that could compete with top tier models like OpenAI for a fraction of the start-up costs was unable to shake the market into a risk-off environment, and most recently the threat of tariffs while creating fear early last Monday was digested by the market as not that big of a deal. Through last week— most of the market remained relatively flat:

• S&P 500 declined -0.24%

• Nasdaq up +0.06%

• Russell 2000 down -0.35%

• Cathie Wood’s ARKK down -0.17%

For a somewhat panicky Monday— the week over week this is minimal. The S&P 500 remained above 6000.