9/17 Lines After Dark
Melt-ups & Rate Cuts
Lines After Dark
Midweek Market Update (< 3min read) – September 17, 2025
The market enjoyed some mid day volatility as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made the much anticipated rate cut. Despite the 100 point trading range, the S&P 500 closed nearly flat, down 0.1% on the session. At the time of writing, S&P 500 futures are trading up slightly towards 6622.
As active readers know— the data historically aligns with consistent rate cuts marking a potential end of rally moment. It is a piece of data that I’m aware of, and now with rate cuts underway I patiently wait for the core risk criteria to flip into a defensive posture. Until such a time, the market outlook will remain bullish until proven guilty.
Let the winners keep running. The trade ideas in American Eagle, Coupang, Tencent, and Barrick Gold are all running towards targets and in the case of American Eagle— past it.
As I wrote in the opening of Sunday’s note— this is the stage where mostly everyone is winning. Capturing outperformance is one thing— holding onto it will be equally important when the tide shifts.