7/7 Alarm Confirmed
Risk-off Alarm confirmed
Out of Cycle Note— November 7, 2025
Risk-Off Activated
The S&P 500 through Friday’s session delivered confirmation of the risk-off alarm with a close below the short term moving average (20-day exponential).
From April we have operated in a market environment where everyone was winning— many will hang on in hopes of greater returns. My system is simple, it is telling me that risk-off environment is the primary consideration. This has been a rewarding year to play long— time to take a back seat until risk subsides. The Sunday note will detail considerations for short sided exposure, responsibly risk managed.