Lines After Dark
Midweek Market Update – July 23, 2025
Sunday’s note ended with a bottom line of “keeping long, staying sharp monitoring risk, and let the data lead.
The S&P 500 made another record all time high today, and broke above a three week range— the Nasdaq and Dow Jones appear set to do the same as all major indices trade at or near all time highs.
At the time of writing the S&P 500 futures are trading slightly up at 6369.
So far July’s seasonality has played out favorably— up 2.13% for the month so far, with room to go to match the 15 year average of 2.89%. Looking ahead towards August & September is some seasonal weakness. Seasonality is never a certainty, but it is something I pay attention to. As I mull over potential scenarios to watch for, the one that comes to mind is an August and September that consolidate the rally from the April lows through time and chop. This would likely cool sentiment and positioning. That would be a nice setup into the final three months of the year.