7/12 Lines After Dark
Hmm..
Lines After Dark
Midweek Market Update (< 3min read) – November 12, 2025
Last Friday set off a confirmed risk-off alarm, meanwhile the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 2% through mid week— not the path I anticipated, but certainly one that always exists (to be wrong). While my analysis remains in “risk-off environment” the longer the S&P 500 continues to close above 6780 the weaker the case becomes. I will mark the signal as a false alarm in the scenario the criteria reset to 0/3.
Through the remainder of this week and next I am monitoring two scenarios:
The S&P 500 on a breakdown close below 6780 to keep the existing risk-off alarm in tact.
Risk-off criteria resetting to 0/3. This case marks the alarm as false and positioning focuses on long opportunities. For me, I will like to resume the ARKK trade in this case looking for closing prices above 83.75, preferably 85.50
At the time of writing S&P 500 futures are trading up slightly to 6860 from the 6850 close.