6/18 Lines After Dark

Navigating 5950

Lines After Dark

Midweek Market Update – June 18, 2025

Sunday’s letter noted that sentiment could cool with the geopolitical headlines, and we’re now seeing that play out midweek. The ideal scenario outlined remains intact: a pullback toward 5910, followed by a decisive break above 6000 that leads to new all-time highs.

The risk scenario earns consideration if the index closes below 5945, breadth deteriorates, and momentum continues to fade—a combination that would trigger a risk-off alarm.

The market ended last week with 2 of 3 risk criteria flashing. That improved to 1 of 3 by Monday and has remained stable through Wednesday.

Meanwhile, ARKK is finally delivering the outperformance we’ve been watching for.
Congrats to those who considered the idea shared at the end of May—up 15% so far.

Risk Criteria Check

As of Wednesday’s close, 1 of 3 risk-off criteria remains active.