Lines After Dark
Midweek Market Update – June 11, 2025
The S&P 500 has started the week on solid footing, holding above the 6000 level. Risk-on barometers ARKK and IWM have followed through nicely, reinforcing the bullish narrative.
Today’s session poured a bit of cold water on the momentum, closing in the red—with S&P 500 futures now sitting at 5999 as of writing. Despite this, the broader structure remains intact.
With momentum still mean-reverting, I maintain the outlook that the market is positioning for a constructive advance to new all-time highs—now just 2% away.
Special mention:
Congratulations to those who considered the Novo Nordisk trade shared at the end of May. This setup hit its first target this week, delivering an 18% return in just two and a half weeks.
Risk Criteria Check
As of Wednesday’s close, 1 of 3 risk-off criteria is active: Momentum.
This signal has persisted for two weeks, triggered after the May rally stretched short-term momentum.
Momentum has effectively flatlined since mid-May, consistent with a market digesting the advance.
The risk histogram continues to reflect a low-risk environment with only one active signal.
Small caps and Risk-on barometers continue to support the bullish structure, and there are key levels on the S&P 500 that deserve close attention in the days ahead. Below, I outline the scenarios I’m watching and how I’m navigating this stretch of the rally.