5/24 Bull Strong
Wobble ends, strength on deck
Strong As A Bull
10 days ago we spotted a market wobble develop under the surface, something to monitor not to panic. The note mid last week showed that wobble to steady, end last week really clearing the wobble, overnight futures are trading up +0.7% putting that wobble to rest.
Bullish until proven guilty. Navigation was smooth, this is one of the many reasons I favor utilizing three core criteria to assess market risk, not all wobbles will equal a long term shift. As always the Sunday and Wednesday notes will monitor the market environment, this last one yielded minimal change in outlook or impact as the market looks to press to start the week. For me, a validation in the methodolgy used.
Reference: “How I Think About The Risk-Off Alarm”
Risk-Off Criteria 0-2 (In Absence of Risk-Off Environment)
In the absence of an alarm triggered risk-off environment, the risk criteria will oscillate between 0-2
Signals an environment to position long, consider individual trade ideas, identify core trades for outperformance. This environment I’ve over the years described as bullish until proven guilty. I do not complicate it anymore than “stay long”
Risk-off alarms can trigger during this period— without next day confirmation the alarms can be quickly dismissed