3/4 Navigating Second Alarm
Another Interesting Week
Lines After Dark
Midweek Market Update - March 4, 2026
Yesterday’s sessions fired the second risk-off alarm for the year, and today’s session confirmed it with the S&P 500 closing below the key moving average. Certainly risk is present and the primary analysis leans towards a risk-off defensive position. A similar scenario unfolded the prior week and was immediately reverted with all three risk-off criteria clearing.
The remainder of the week will show if a risk-off environment is to stick around for a longer duration. I remain sidelined and at present have no intent to create any bearish positioning.
At the time of writing S&P 500 futures are trading flat to Wednesday’s close.
When the risk-off alarm is active the guidance is simple:
Reference: “How I Think About The Risk-Off Alarm”
Risk-Off Alarm Criteria
Triggered when trend, breadth and momentum simultaneously close negative
Signals a risk-off environment
Reduce long exposure, take profit/review closing individual trade ideas, hedge long exposure, consideration for short trades
The environment is defined as risk-off from the confirmed alarm signal to the point where the risk-off criteria record 0/3 for two sessions. Throughout the risk-off period the criteria can oscillate between 1-3