3/11 Still Risk-Off

Relief Rally Stalls

Lines After Dark

Midweek Market Update - March 11, 2026

The concluding message in Sunday’s note was that the environment had firmly shifted to risk-off with the risk-off alarm active. Monday delivered significant intraday volatility a historic intraday move in oil prices. That said— Monday ended up closing positive. Tuesday had the S&P 500 reject at the short term moving average as this are was being monitored for resistance, Wednesday session delivered a slight decline, and futures at the time of writing are trading down -0.75% with the S&P 500 at 6714.

Sunday’s note included two entries locations to capitalize on a sustained decline. A rejection at 6750, and a rejection off the short term moving average. I opened positions at both locations against the S&P 500.

There is always a headline. My intent in this analysis is to leave that to other publications and maintain a focus on what price, breadth and momentum are reading to determine market health. The market remains firmly in risk-off and will stay this way until such a time where the risk-off criteria remain clear for two consecutive sessions.

Reference: “How I Think About The Risk-Off Alarm”