2/23 Alarm
First Alarm In 2026
Out Of Cycle Note
Market Update - February 23, 2026
Risk Off Alarm
The Monday February 23rd market sessions has triggered the first risk-off alarm for 2026 with a simultaneous breakdown of trend, market breadth, and momentum. These
For many weeks now there have been multiple moments for a risk-off alarm to trigger— today the alarm has formally been triggered. One additional step is required to confirm the signal, a second close below the short term moving average for the S&P 500. Tomorrow’s session must close below 6891.
S&P 500 futures are trading flat at the time of writing.
Reference: “How I Think About The Risk-Off Alarm”
Risk-Off Alarm Criteria
Triggered when trend, breadth and momentum simultaneously close negative
Signals a risk-off environment
Reduce long exposure, take profit/review closing individual trade ideas, hedge long exposure, consideration for short trades
The environment is defined as risk-off from the confirmed alarm signal to the point where the risk-off criteria record 0/3 for two sessions. Throughout the risk-off period the criteria can oscillate between 1-3
The mantra of bullish until proven guilty may come to an end tomorrow. Coincidentally it was nearly a year ago February 25 2025 that triggered the first alarm last year. Odd timing.