1/25 Avoiding Alarms
Still Bullish Until Proven Guilty
Two panic sessions through last week, and bull participant (& narrative) survived and remained intact. It is precisely weeks like this where I continue to grow appreciation for the established risk analysis system. Until there is an alarm— despite all the headline noise from traditional finance media or on social platforms, the course is maintained until the data says to do otherwise. The S&P 500 found support mid week where the benefit of the doubt was afforded, and closed the week recapturing key trend with a reduced risk-off profile. Like the photo— a moment for the bull to take a sauna break after two “too close for comfort” sessions mid week. The mantra carries on: bullish until proven guilty.
It is the final Sunday note for January, alongside the core market analysis are updated charts for the active trade ideas.
Closing The Gold Trade
In February 2024 “the gold trade” was shared. At that time I had caught insight that Stanley Druckenmiller was selling technology, and increasing positions in two gold miners, Barrick Gold and Newmont. I found the chart appealing, and so began the nearly two year long trade. Back then, the gold commodity was trading at just above $2,000/oz, today gold trades just under $5,000/oz— the Barrick Gold stock followed the same path.
The trade started in February 2024, navigated a period of consolidation and reached full exposure in June 2025 following a decisive breakout above 20. Profits were collected in November 2025, and the trade is now closed with the final lot sold in early January 2026.
From trade inception the Barrick stock rallied nearly 250%. Congratulations to the readers who considered participated in this very long trade. The late stage sharp rally has met target, and for now the trade has concluded. I will maintain an eye on Barrick, but in the near term anticipate a period of consolidation in the 46-55 range representing long term resistance.
Risk Off Criteria: 1 of 3 Active
Reference: “How I Think About The Risk-Off Alarm”