12 Comments
User's avatar
Sugarbear's avatar

Quality update. Thanks for keeping it real

Konstantinos Nikopoulos's avatar

So Tom I read your well detailed report but in all frankness tomorrow spx do you long or short? I am sorry but I don’t see any clear guidance.

tom's avatar

No short consideration again until risk-off alarm triggers. I’m considering long ARKK if it can close above 81. This will be the primary trade IF market resumes melt up

Konstantinos Nikopoulos's avatar

Ok thank you. Having said that your risk off alarm was in a way off again at least for past week.

tom's avatar

The risk of criteria flipping from “off” to “on” always lags the equity low.

David Kireta's avatar

Nice update. Are you reporting what % of your portfolio you are investing into your stock equity positions?

David Kireta's avatar

If you did, it would make a huge difference in how closely I could place confidence in your recommendations.

tom's avatar

Thanks for the feedback. I have reported my trades in segments (ie. 1/3, 3/4, full, overweight) to give readers a gauge in my confidence. I’ll be making some adjustments in the new year to how trades (ETF + individual trades) can be tracked and referenced through 2026. I’ll consider the size % detail.

tom's avatar

Individual trades range from 2-15%, wide range.

David Kireta's avatar

I was most interested in how you personally achieved a 33% return thus far…figured you had a system preference to achieve that.

tom's avatar

Majority of this year performance comes from ARKK, other notable mover were the three BABA TCEHY CPNG.